Jin Shiyuan (603369): 2019: the plan to quadruple the new five-year success

Jin Shiyuan (603369): 2019: the plan to quadruple the 北京夜网 new five-year success

The event company announced an announcement of the 2019 annual results increase.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019.

81?
14.

$ 96 trillion, a 20% increase each year?
30%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after non-recurring gains and losses.

3.2 billion?
14.

430,000 yuan, an annual increase of 20%?
30%.

A brief comment on the success of the first five-year plan in 2019, and continued high growth in 2020.

The company disclosed in its 2018 annual report that its operating target for 2019 is to achieve operating income48.

5 percent, an increase of about 30 percent in one year, and a net profit of 14.

3 trillion, an increase of about 25% in ten years.

According to the pre-announcement announcement, it is expected that the business goals for 2019 will be achieved.

The company disclosed its business goals for 2020 at the lowest development conference at the end of December, which is about 25% increase in operating income and still maintains a high growth rate.

The core driving factors of high income growth in 2019 are still the structural improvement and continuous growth in the province.

In terms of product structure, the pre-increasing announcement revealed that the bid growth rate of special A + products exceeded 40%, which was the main driving force for growth.

The three major brands performed well in the first three quarters. The leading brands in the first three quarters grew 46% in the first three quarters, accounting for more than 70%. The growth and growth basically continued the high growth trend, and the proportion of special A above 300 yuan reached 56.

2%, a year-on-year growth of 47%, and special category A emerging accounts above 100 yuan account for 87.

6%, an increase of 3 per year.

65 points.

On the regional front, the province has made steady progress and its strategic layout outside the province has shown a high growth trend.

In the first three quarters, the province’s revenue increased by 28.

7%, the income outside the province increased by 62.

3% (low base).

(1) The market in the province is solid and steady.

In terms of channels, the number of AB markets (“leading” and “parallel running” markets) increased by 12 to 28; in terms of product prices, the transaction prices of product terminals were generally increased; the sales scale was 20 offices with an annual budget of more than one million dollarsFor example, the ratio is 50.

6%, an increase of 5 per year.

9pct; In terms of channel construction, the number of contracted outlets 1 will be gradually increased from January to November.

70,000, a year-on-year growth of 25%.

(2) The strategic layout of markets outside the province is rapidly advancing.

The 2 + 5 market has grown by more than 60% in ten years. More than 200 new customers were signed in January-November, which increased by more than 80% in one year.

More than 30,000 homes, with an annual growth rate of over 200%.

Organizations and personnel have also changed in recent years, supporting the company’s deep cultivation in the province and expansion outside the province.

In terms of organization, in 2018, the company streamlined the channel structure, canceled the regional marketing center in the provincial reorganized channel structure “regional manager → regional marketing center → office”, promoted channel integration, and changed the 13 regional regions in the province toIn 6 regions, a total of 6 regional managers were transferred to Shandong Province.

One is to improve the channel efficiency in the province, and the other is to strengthen the channel strength in Shandong.

The company disclosed at the development conference that the sales staff in 2019 will increase by more than 200 people, which is expected to increase by more than 20%.
Since 2017, the company’s sales staff has continued to grow rapidly, with growth rates of 15% and 28% in 17 and 18 years respectively, and more than 1,000 employees in 2019, supporting the company’s deep cultivation and expansion of channels.

Entering the critical period of the company’s development, the brand + channel dual drive achieves the right side of the industry.

At the end of 2018, the company proposed a “new five-year plan”, planning for 2019?
2023 will achieve sustained and rapid growth. At the end of 2023, the scale of revenue will quadruple compared with 2018, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 26%.

The core reason for the proposed plan is the company’s judgment on the industry trend: the industry is accelerating to the right, and the Matthew effect is expected to continue to manifest.
The company strives to enter the top seven sectors of the industry, mainly by means of superior brands and dual channels.

Judging from the current situation, the brand has a solid foundation and strives to extend to the high end.

The company has been cultivating in Jiangsu Province for many years. As a leading high-end brand in the province, the leading brand Guoyuan has greater consumer recognition, which is sufficient to support the company’s profit base. In addition, the company strategically promotes the V series to lay out high-end products, occupying a thousand yuan.

In terms of channels, the channel structure continues to give full play to the main advantages of group buying, the regional layout rapidly expands in the Jiangsu region, and gradually promotes the nationalization of national border brands to ensure the high sustainability of national border brands in the province.

There is ample room for growth in the province, and potential benefits are bound to ensure execution. High growth in the new five years is expected.

The company has been working through the upstream channels and brand operation for several years, and has initially formed a national border in Jiangsu Province. The consumption conversion of single products such as collections has a high consumer self-recruitment rate.

Liquor consumption in Jiangsu Province is relatively high. The scale of liquor consumption in the province is estimated to exceed 30 billion, and there is plenty of room for growth. Yanghe, today Shiyuan is still a competitive development in the province.

Medium and high-level management personnel have high shareholdings in joint-stock companies, and the deep binding of interests ensures execution. From the perspective of the company’s development in recent years, brand layout and channel construction have continued to improve, and business quality has continued to improve.

We think the company’s quadrupling plan for the new five-year period has a higher probability of success.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations
In 2021, the operating income will be 48.

81, 62.

86, 78.

350,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

5%, 28.

8%, 24.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

36, 17.

95, 23.

17 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

8%, 25.

0%, 29.

1%; corresponding EPS is 1.

14.1.

43,1.

85 yuan.

Latest consensus (1.

15 is 35.

02 yuan) corresponding to 2019?
2021 dynamic PE is 26.

4, 21.

1, 16.

4 times.