BYD (002594)： The future’s universal intelligent hardware platform leader with unbeatable cost performance
BYD (002594): The future’s universal intelligent hardware platform leader with unbeatable cost performance
Investment points: Demand for electric vehicles is driving health, far better than market expectations.
There are two major demand drivers for electric vehicles: one is the demand for a second vehicle for private consumption.
At present, the average car ownership of domestic households has reached zero.
There are 85 cars in the family.
In the future, the driving force of automobile demand will gradually be transformed into the second demand and replacement demand. From the perspective of product strength, electric vehicles are suitable for the second car in the family; the second is the 南京夜网论坛 operational demand.
We estimate that, compared with fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have established advantages in full life cycle costs and have strong operating needs.
Core Competitiveness I: Mastering core components through vertical operations has established a core competitiveness of “cost-effectiveness”.
The company started from secondary batteries, and the best one is vertical mode.
The core components and equipment are produced in-house to obtain complementary advantages in cost and technology.
At present, the company’s Sanden is basically self-produced, and has mastered core technologies such as power batteries and IGBTs with very high barriers. Therefore, its models are highly cost-effective in the terminal. At present, the core indicators such as Tang and Yuan endurance and acceleration are far ahead of the competition at the same price.opponent.
Core Competitiveness II: The company’s electric vehicle is open and highly versatile.
The e-platform has low cost and high degree of openness, and is expected to become a future universal smart car hardware platform.
We believe that the electrification of automobiles has led to a dramatic change in the value distribution of the traditional automotive industry chain. The business model of OEMs is facing historic changes. There are two types of OEMs that can survive in the future. One is to extend upwards as a hardware integration platform, and the other is toExtend down to make a line of service.
Because the core component technology has been opened up, the company’s e-platform cost is 20% lower than that of the industry, and it can integrate and open 341 sensors and 66 control rights. The e-platform has become the industry’s general smart vehicle hardware platform.
Sales are one of the core drivers of sustainability.
In our opinion, judging the company’s long-term investment value, sales volume is more important than profit indicators.
Electric vehicles are still a weak growth industry supported by policies. The current industry profits are not balanced and it is not appropriate to judge the long-term investment value through profit indicators.
For industry leaders, it is necessary to maintain high sales and market share levels, and to carry out cost and technological transformation of leading industry speed, rather than earn short-term cash flow.
Therefore, we believe that sales volume is a potentially more important catalyst for the company.
The initial reasonable market value is 174.1 billion yuan, with 31% of room, given an overweight rating.
We have long been optimistic about the cost and openness barriers established by the company’s vertical model.
According to our model calculations, we predict that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19-21 will be 26.
1.3 billion, 42.
7.3 billion, 58.
2.4 billion, corresponding to 55 times, 34 times, and 25 times the corresponding PE.
Through the analysis of the segment estimation method, we have calculated that the company’s reasonable market value is 174.1 billion yuan, which has 31% growth space compared to the current one. We give an overweight rating. The company’s electric vehicle sales and supply chain opening progress are necessary catalysts.
Risk warning: the competition model increases, the company’s 武汉夜生活网 sales of electric vehicles exceed expectations; external supply such as power batteries is not progressing smoothly.