China Merchants Shekou (001979) 2019 Interim Report Review： High Sales Increase, Temporary Performance Decline, Financing Advantage Highlighted
China Merchants Shekou (001979) 2019 Interim Report Review: High Sales Increase, Temporary Performance Decline, Financing Advantage Highlighted
19H1’s performance was 4.9 billion, -31% year-on-year, due to reduced carry-over, weaker gross profit margin and lower investment income. 19H1’s company achieved operating income of 166.
9 ‰, at least -20.
5%; net profit attributable to mother 49.
0 ppm, ten years -31.
2%; corresponding gross and net profit margins are 37.
9% and 29.
4%, respectively -4.
9 points and -4.
6pct; three expense ratios of 11.
8%, +2 per year.
6pct, in which the sales and management expense rates are +1 respectively.
2pct is mainly due to the increase in expenses due to the rapid expansion of the company’s sales scale.
Minority interests of the company 9.
4% a year -1.
3pct; The company’s negative revenue growth was mainly due to the decrease in the carry-over area and the carry-over unit price in the first half of the year.
The decline in the company’s performance was greater than the decline in revenue, mainly due to: 1) affected by the 17-year price limit policy expansion, some low gross profit margin sales projects began to carry forward; 2) the Shenzhen project carried forward the gross profit margin after tax.
8% per year -20.
5 points, distorting the overall gross profit margin; 3) Investment income of joint ventures / joint ventures44.
0 million yuan, at least -11.
4%; Considering that the company is expected to complete completion in 19 years and the area to be carried forward will increase, inventory impairment will be reversed / resold, and sales will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the company’s performance to release steadily.
In 19H1, sales reached 101.2 billion yuan, exceeding + 35%. Sales, completion, and high advance receipts fully ensured that the integration and carryover of 19H1 companies achieved a contract amount of 1,011.
9 trillion, +34 a year.
8%, 50% of the initial 200 billion completed 19-year plan.
6%; Achieved contracted area of 515.
20,000 countries, +43 per year.
8%; cumulative average selling price of 19,640 yuan / square meter, earlier than 18 years -4.
7pct; the company’s industry ranking of Kerer and Ruiye is one more place to the 11th.
Considering:天津夜网 1) The company has ample value for pushing goods at present, and plans to start construction of 11 new multimeters in 19, of which +1.
7%, and the actual new start in the past three years are beyond the early plan; 2) The company ‘s average ratio in the first half of 14-18 is 41%, and the push in the second half of the calendar year has penetrated.Excessive completion; 3) The company’s layout is mainly based on first- and second-tier cities with tight supply and demand relationships; it is expected to comprehensively guarantee the company’s large-scale sales.
In addition, the company plans to complete 1,000 common areas in 19 years, plus 100 in ten years.
5%; the company’s advance accounts at the end of 19H1 reached 1,111.
0 billion, +26 a year.
6%; the company believes that the planned completion of the company has a high growth rate, advance receipts reached a record high, the sales growth rate is faster than the revenue growth rate, 19 years to reach the carry-over scale is still expected to be fully guaranteed.
19H1 land acquisition accounted for 39%, land acquisition was suspended, financial health, and financing advantages were outstanding. 19H1 companies added 383 new construction sites.
30,000 countries, at least -49.
0%; total land price 397.
0 ppm, ten years -34.2%, taking up land accounts for 39% of diesel.
2%, taking land has continued the short rhythm since 18Q4.
The average floor price is RMB 10,357 per square meter, +28 per year.
9, due to the company’s efforts to increase land in key first- and second-tier cities.
In addition, in 18 years, the company successively acquired equity of Dongfeng Real Estate, a project of Nongfa Group, internally integrated Zhangzhou in the group, the land consolidation plan of Qianhai was implemented, and the non-marketization land acquisition ability was accelerated.
In terms of finance, the company’s average financing cost in 19H1 was 4.
91%, a slight increase of 0 from 18 years.
06pct; interest-bearing debt of 138.4 billion yuan, +6 in ten years.
5%; long-short debt ratio 2.
1. Short cash debt ratio is 1.
7. The debt structure is excessively healthy.
Asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio were 76 respectively.
0%, respectively -0.
8pct, the decrease in net debt rate was due to the increase in net assets and monetary funds; operating net cash flow60.
600 million, continue to be positive.
Investment suggestion: high sales growth, temporary decline in performance, prominent financing advantages, maintain “strong push” rating Merchants Shekou actively changed in multiple dimensions after reorganization, management reforms, improve turnover, accelerate integration; the company sits on first- and second-tier high-quality soil storage,The Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao Greater Bay Area resource reserve has a very high gold content; only “marketization + non-marketization” has a strong land acquisition advantage.
As the core target of the Greater Bay Area, the company’s asset value has further increased.
However, considering the company’s lower-than-expected carry-over and lower gross margin improvement, we cut the company’s 19-21 year earnings to 2.
34 yuan (original value 2).
97 and 3.
64 yuan), the current price corresponding to 19-20 PE is 8.
0 times, compared with previous NAV35.
A 20% discount is 42%. We discount the target price by 30% at a 25% NAV discount.
00 slightly lowered to 26.
4 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.
Risk reminder: Tighter-than-expected tightening of real estate development policies and tighter-than-expected tightening of industry financing policies.